Update on the Groundhog Day Severe Weather Threat

– Lauren Forney

DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES — A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG – SPC – Storm Prediction Center

Enhanced Risk
‘Enhanced Risk’ of Severe Weather Storm Prediction Center
10% hatched tornado probability
10% hatched Tornado Outlook (meaning that at any point within that hatched area, there is a 10% of a tornado occurring at any one point- a relatively high probability in this sense)

Happy Groundhog Day! Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow today – Spring is coming early this year! It certainly feels like spring in the Southeastern US today- especially as severe weather threatens.

(However, it does not feel like spring from where I’m writing this post – digging out from the over 10in of ‘upslope’ driven snows near Boulder, CO)

Currently there are 2 Tornado Watches in effect:

Tornado Watches
Tornado Watches

As of writing this post 3:10pm Eastern, there are now 3 active tornado warnings (a Tornado Warning means a tornado is occurring or imminent). Here’s a look at the Tornado Warning approaching Starkville, MS:

Tornado Warning
Radar Scope image of the velocity couplet on the Tornado Warning near Starkville, MS

Here is a current look at the Surface Analysis from HPC NCEP

NCEP Surface Analysis
NCEP Surface Analysis

Scott Peake and Kevin Rolfs are in Mississippi. Stay tuned for updates!

Make sure your NOAA Weather Radios are powered up & tune into TV/Radio for warnings. (Know ahead of time where your shelter is) If you are under a tornado warning- seek shelter immediately!

– Lauren Forney
WAS*IS (Weather and Society Integrated Studies) & Vortex 2
Follow Lauren on Twitter!

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